Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.003329 0.003656 0.004005 0.004406 0.004855 0.005343 0.005914
2026-01-18 0.002754 0.003208 0.003726 0.004366 0.005138 0.006045 0.007199
2026-01-25 0.002406 0.002913 0.003521 0.004307 0.005308 0.006550 0.008224
2026-02-01 0.002186 0.002731 0.003409 0.004321 0.005533 0.007108 0.009342
2026-02-08 0.001987 0.002548 0.003266 0.004266 0.005645 0.007508 0.010269
2026-02-15 0.001812 0.002375 0.003115 0.004178 0.005689 0.007804 0.011066
2026-02-22 0.001702 0.002278 0.003054 0.004198 0.005877 0.008309 0.012205
2026-03-01 0.001636 0.002234 0.003059 0.004307 0.006196 0.009024 0.013733
2026-03-08 0.001525 0.002115 0.002948 0.004237 0.006236 0.009316 0.014616
2026-03-15 0.001423 0.002004 0.002838 0.004156 0.006249 0.009560 0.015438
2026-03-22 0.001347 0.001924 0.002768 0.004129 0.006341 0.009932 0.016510
2026-03-29 0.001295 0.001878 0.002745 0.004171 0.006544 0.010503 0.017989
2026-04-05 0.001220 0.001794 0.002661 0.004117 0.006595 0.010838 0.019121
2026-04-12 0.001154 0.001720 0.002591 0.004080 0.006674 0.011234 0.020427
2026-04-19 0.001091 0.001646 0.002514 0.004026 0.006715 0.011563 0.021639
2026-04-26 0.001047 0.001600 0.002479 0.004038 0.006875 0.012123 0.023385
2026-05-03 0.000994 0.001537 0.002411 0.003987 0.006913 0.012453 0.024693
2026-05-10 0.000939 0.001468 0.002329 0.003906 0.006885 0.012650 0.025736
2026-05-17 0.000907 0.001434 0.002304 0.003925 0.007049 0.013244 0.027745
2026-05-24 0.000891 0.001426 0.002324 0.004026 0.007380 0.014211 0.030758
2026-05-31 0.000849 0.001371 0.002257 0.003960 0.007375 0.014471 0.032118
2026-06-07 0.000808 0.001316 0.002188 0.003886 0.007344 0.014671 0.033356
2026-06-14 0.000777 0.001278 0.002146 0.003861 0.007412 0.015095 0.035230